- Apr 1, 2015
- 483
Older article, but a good read. I agree with Eugene on this and appreciate his honest input.
Artificial intelligence… Two words which together conjure up so much wonder and awe in the imagination of programmers, sci-fi fans and perhaps just about anyone with an interest in the fate of the world!
Thanks to man’s best friend the dog R2-D2, the evil Skynet, the fantastical 2001: A Space Odyssey, post-apocalyptical androids dreaming of electric sheep, and maybe also Gary Numan, everyone is pretty well familiar with the concept of artificial intelligence (AI). Yep, books, the big screen, comics, er… mashed potato advertisements – AI is in all of them in a big way. It also features heavily in the marketing materials of recently-appearing and exceptionally-ambitious cybersecurity companies. In fact, there’s probably only one place today where you can’t find it. Thing is, that single place happens to cover practically everything that makes up this world and all the life in it: the not-so-insignificant sphere called ‘real everyday life‘.
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It’s common knowledge that since the days of Alan Turing and Norbert Wiener (that is, around the mid-20th century) computers have come on in leaps and bounds. They learned how (rather, they were taught how) to play chess – and better than humans. They fly planes, now also cars on the roads. They write newspaper articles, catch malware and do tons of other useful – and often not so useful – things. They pass the Turing test to prove possession of intelligent behavior equivalent to a human. However, a chatterbot simulating a 13-year-old capable of nothing else – that is just an algorithm plus a collection of libraries. It is not artificial intelligence. Not convinced? Then I advise you simply look up the definition of AI, then that of an algorithm, and then look at the differences between the two. It’s not rocket computer science.
We are currently witnessing yet another wave of interest in AI across the world. Which number this wave is I’ve lost track of…
This time, an in-vogue Oxford philosopher writes a book about AI. He believes that (i) AI will come about eventually for sure; and (ii) it doesn’t bode well for mankind. Of course, this gets a lot of people seriously worried. I mean, this isn’t some hack writing on a blog. So what’s it gonna be? Is he right in thinking AI and its technological singularity will be the death knell for humanity? Or could AI in fact make a heaven on earth?
AI experts agree: for now, AI does not exist
Bostrum’s book also details his survey of experts in the AI sphere, from which we get a probability that AI will be created by the year 2040 of 50%, and by 2075 of 90%. Surely we can extrapolate that by 2116 – 100 years from now – it’s pretty darn likely that AI will be a reality for sure. And just think – it might be AI itself discussing the problem of, er, AI by then too! Whoah. Eek!
HOWEVER. There is another conclusion we can draw from the book: for now, AI does not exist.
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