Former Google CEO predicts the internet will split in two by 2028

[vtqhtr413]

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https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/former-google-ceo-predicts-internet-211300187.html?guccounter=1

Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google and executive chairman of Alphabet predicts that within the next decade there will be two distinct internets: one led by the U.S. and the other by China. Schmidt shared his thoughts at a private event in San Francisco on Wednesday night convened by investment firm Village Global VC. The firm enlists tech luminaries — including Schmidt, Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates and Diane Green — as limited partners, then invests their money into early-stage tech ventures.

At the event, economist Tyler Cowen asked, "What are the chances that the internet fragments over the years?" Schmidt said: "I think the most likely scenario now is not a splintering, but rather a bifurcation into a Chinese-led internet and a non-Chinese internet led by America.

If you look at China, and I was just there, the scale of the companies that are being built, the services being built, the wealth that is being created is phenomenal. Chinese Internet is a greater percentage of the GDP of China, which is a big number, than the same percentage of the US, which is also a big number.

If you think of China as like 'Oh yeah, they're good with the Internet,' you're missing the point. Globalization means that they get to play too. I think you're going to see fantastic leadership in products and services from China. There's a real danger that along with those products and services comes a different leadership regime from the government, with censorship, controls, etc.

Look at the way BRI works – their Belt and Road Initiative, which involves 60-ish countries – it's perfectly possible those countries will begin to take on the infrastructure that China has with some loss of freedom."

Full Story Former Google CEO predicts the internet will split in two by 2028, with one part led by China

 

[DeepWeb]

Honestly I would say 4 internets exist right now. One led by the US/Western world, one led by China, one by India and one Japan/Korea one.

Sometimes I come across those places and I get lost in the content. It's like visiting another world of just as equally quality content. There is a Chinese equivalents of Netflix, Google, YouTube, Facebook, etc. There are Indian equivalents of those services and they are just as great and it's crazy how we in the West rarely hear about them. Like there is an entire video streaming service for Bollywood content and it's high quality and the trailers for those exclusive shows have tens and hundreds of millions of views on YouTube.

But I disagree with Eric Schmidt. He has the mindset of most old people who cannot grasp that the younger generations DO WANT to connect with other cultures and the barriers that the older generations are always talking about simply do not exist in the minds of the younger generations. The best example is the rising popularity of K-Pop. It started in the Japan/Korea media scene, but it got so big that it spilled over into the Western scene and now those worlds are slowly merging together. I see K-Pop stars at winning awards at Western award shows. Eventually as those companies get bigger they will step foot into our worlds and people will be happy to take in the cultures and mix and there is nobody who can stop this trend of a global village, no company, no regime, because the young don't see the barriers and they have power in numbers. Regimes and companies are merely just following the trend in hope they can tame it, but they can't. The Internet will be the end of the repressive regimes. They cannot control it. Period.

 

[RejZoR]

In reality, there are just two "internets". One private with people who keep their data private and pay to keep it that way and the one where people spill everything about them to mega corporations in exchange for free services. Both of these "internets" run on same physical connections or "the internet" as we know it.

 

[Kubla]

I am thinking it will be forced in two but not the way the former Google CEO thinks.

With the growing censorship by giant tech and media giants, the ever increasing intrusion on peoples private lives and the massive data collection being predicated on them, where everyday appliances can spy on them, where they can't even trust applications designed to protect their privacy and data to do just that, it is going to drive users off the normal web to the Dark Web, or decentralized internet or a variation of both for privacy, security and the truth.

 

[AtlBo]

One way things could be when the changes are over:

-1. U.S./Canada/S. America/Europe. This could be broken into two internets intrinsically, "Free" access web sites and "Pay" net for pay services such as newspapers/other periodicals.
-2. Japan/South Korea/China could actually form together an internet to defend eastern cultural interests. All participants, including other nations in the region like North Korea, Vietnam, and Thaliand could then each be able to apply their own filtering standards to the common hardware network. The Chinese seem to be a driving force for now behind the beginning of what could become this sort of arrangement, but then would the Japanese go for a connection to such a setup (and would the Chinese allow it)? I think they could in both cases and also then that the Japanese could be allowed to finish the job the Chinese have started (in a cooperative effort). The Japanese do rely heavily on parts manufacturers in China which could foster this type of arrangement. In exchange, the Chinese and the rest would, again, be allowed to filter information into their nation by their own standard but all first through this single region wide filter developed in a single agreement. I believe China in particular will continue to be interested in big business pursuits which connect corporations across internets, but personal access to the western internet it seems will be at best tolerated for some in some regions of China. So for the rest of the Chinese people, looks like there won't be access outside of China.
-3. I believe the French (basing this speculation purely on French nationalistic pride) may at some point use a similar model to the Russians (below) to develop an impressive state run internet of services which might provide for the expectations that the French have for some things to be done a single way...a way to organize the www for the specialized use of the French people. Things like train tokens could be purchased but then restaurant reservations might also be made, a taxi summoned, or even food delivered from the market on a single official French governmentally managed service site/channel. However, I don't see any provision for state television, phone, or internet access...just a government service to streamline the lives of the French people (French citizens) and add nationalistic structure for them to the standard western www environment.
-4. Don't think the Russians would ever outlaw access to the Euro/American internet (via satellite etc.) but I do think they will establish a state run internet for services like buying train tokens or other services (see French above-all the same). Also, I believe access to the outside web could end up requiring some special hardware considerations, hardware not found typically inside of Russia (but probably not too difficult or illegal to obtain). This type of state arrangement I think would most likely also provide ALL of the basic national television, phone, and intra-national internet access to the majority of Russians.
-5. South Africa/New Zealand/Australia could be behind a single communications filter. The Australians seem already to be headed in this direction.

LOL...I have been studying global geo-politics for the last 15 years I guess. Suppose I am a little bit crazy about understanding where things might go in the future, hence the deeper than normal interest I have in this single topic. At any rate, I do believe that the www will be available for anyone who is willing to jump through enough hoops to have access and that the www will develop freely over any filters that might be created.

 

[Kubla]

One way things could be when the changes are over:

-1. U.S./Canada/S. America/Europe. This could be broken into two internets intrinsically, "Free" access web sites and "Pay" net for pay services such as newspapers/other periodicals.
-2. Japan/South Korea/China could actually form together an internet to defend eastern cultural interests. All participants, including other nations in the region like North Korea, Vietnam, and Thaliand could then each be able to apply their own filtering standards to the common hardware network. The Chinese seem to be a driving force for now behind the beginning of what could become this sort of arrangement, but then would the Japanese go for a connection to such a setup (and would the Chinese allow it)? I think they could in both cases and also then that the Japanese could be allowed to finish the job the Chinese have started (in a cooperative effort). The Japanese do rely heavily on parts manufacturers in China which could foster this type of arrangement. In exchange, the Chinese and the rest would, again, be allowed to filter information into their nation by their own standard but all first through this single region wide filter developed in a single agreement. I believe China in particular will continue to be interested in big business pursuits which connect corporations across internets, but personal access to the western internet it seems will be at best tolerated for some in some regions of China. So for the rest of the Chinese people, looks like there won't be access outside of China.
-3. I believe the French (basing this speculation purely on French nationalistic pride) may at some point use a similar model to the Russians (below) to develop an impressive state run internet of services which might provide for the expectations that the French have for some things to be done a single way...a way to organize the www for the specialized use of the French people. Things like train tokens could be purchased but then restaurant reservations might also be made, a taxi summoned, or even food delivered from the market on a single official French governmentally managed service site/channel. However, I don't see any provision for state television, phone, or internet access...just a government service to streamline the lives of the French people (French citizens) and add nationalistic structure for them to the standard western www environment.
-4. Don't think the Russians would ever outlaw access to the Euro/American internet (via satellite etc.) but I do think they will establish a state run internet for services like buying train tokens or other services (see French above-all the same). Also, I believe access to the outside web could end up requiring some special hardware considerations, hardware not found typically inside of Russia (but probably not too difficult or illegal to obtain). This type of state arrangement I think would most likely also provide ALL of the basic national television, phone, and intra-national internet access to the majority of Russians.
-5. South Africa/New Zealand/Australia could be behind a single communications filter. The Australians seem already to be headed in this direction.

LOL...I have been studying global geo-politics for the last 15 years I guess. Suppose I am a little bit crazy about understanding where things might go in the future, hence the deeper than normal interest I have in this single topic. At any rate, I do believe that the www will be available for anyone who is willing to jump through enough hoops to have access and that the www will develop freely over any filters that might be created.

I think you are spot on about Japan/South Korea/China they are fiercely protective of their cultures, and they have learned from the West multiculturalism is a failure so they will likely do what ever it takes to keep untainted.