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<blockquote data-quote="Andy Ful" data-source="post: 916477" data-attributes="member: 32260">[USER=89360]@McMcbrad[/USER] has focused my attention on the potential problem of increasing the new malware samples. If so, then this effect should be also included in the formula (it is not for this moment).[ATTACH=full]250090[/ATTACH]<s>Although this will not probably cause a change in the infection rate, but it can increase the average number of AV alerts (about 10% of total malware in the year 2020).&nbsp; So instead of 10, we should use (1.1+1,2+1.3+...2.0) = 15.5</s><s>The chance will grow proportionally by 1.55:</s><s>4.82% * 1.55 ~ 7.5%</s><s></s><s>Edit.</s><s>The exact formula:</s><s>c = {1 - { [ (1 - r)^(a*1.55) ]*[ (1 - R)^(b*1.55) ] }^n } * 100% ~ 7.4%</s><s>a=1, b=3, r=30/7340, R=60/213000, n=10</s>Edit.I had to update/edit this post. The table does not show the increase of new malware a year as [USER=89179]@Minimalist[/USER] noticed in his posts. The number of new malware a year is about 140 mln (2013-2020) and it is approximately constant. So, the correction in the formula is not required.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Andy Ful, post: 916477, member: 32260"] [USER=89360]@McMcbrad[/USER] has focused my attention on the potential problem of increasing the new malware samples. If so, then this effect should be also included in the formula (it is not for this moment). [ATTACH type="full" alt="1606761944982.png"]250090[/ATTACH] [S]Although this will not probably cause a change in the infection rate, but it can increase the average number of AV alerts (about 10% of total malware in the year 2020). So instead of 10, we should use (1.1+1,2+1.3+...2.0) = 15.5 The chance will grow proportionally by 1.55: 4.82% * 1.55 ~ 7.5% Edit. The exact formula: c = {1 - { [ (1 - r)^(a*1.55) ]*[ (1 - R)^(b*1.55) ] }^n } * 100% ~ 7.4% a=1, b=3, r=30/7340, R=60/213000, n=10[/S] Edit. I had to update/edit this post. The table does not show the increase of new malware a year as [USER=89179]@Minimalist[/USER] noticed in his posts. The number of new malware a year is about 140 mln (2013-2020) and it is approximately constant. So, the correction in the formula is not required. [/QUOTE]

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