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Malware Analysis
How big are your chances to be infected?
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<blockquote data-quote="Andy Ful" data-source="post: 917509" data-attributes="member: 32260"><p>Having the data from the OP (chances_to_be_infected.txt) we can compare the infection rates for the years 2019 and 2020 to see if they are changing.</p><p></p><p>The number of Real-World samples tested in the year 2019 (<strong><span style="color: rgb(41, 105, 176)">AV-Test</span> + <span style="color: rgb(0, 168, 133)">AV-Comparatives</span> + SE Labs</strong>):</p><p><span style="color: rgb(41, 105, 176)"><strong>309+277+307+368+335+331</strong></span>+ <strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 168, 133)">752+703</span></strong>+ <strong> 400</strong> = 3782</p><p>The number of Real-World samples tested in the year 2020 (<span style="color: rgb(41, 105, 176)"><strong>AV-Test</strong></span><strong> + <span style="color: rgb(0, 168, 133)">AV-Comparatives</span> + SE Labs</strong>):</p><p><strong><span style="color: rgb(41, 105, 176)">402+304+339+370+334</span></strong>+ <span style="color: rgb(0, 168, 133)"> <strong>754+758</strong></span>+ <strong>300</strong> = 3561</p><p></p><p>The number of Malware-Protection samples in the year 2019 (<span style="color: rgb(41, 105, 176)"><strong>AV-Test</strong></span><strong> + </strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 168, 133)"><strong>AV-Comparatives</strong></span>):</p><p><strong><span style="color: rgb(41, 105, 176)">13668+6572+2428+13521+25933+20428</span></strong>+<span style="color: rgb(0, 168, 133)"><strong>10970+10556</strong></span> = 104076</p><p>The number of Malware-Protection samples in the year 2020 (<span style="color: rgb(41, 105, 176)"><strong>AV-Test</strong></span><strong> + </strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 168, 133)"><strong>AV-Comparatives</strong></span>):</p><p><strong><span style="color: rgb(41, 105, 176)">20606+20236+21851+13571+12316</span></strong>+<span style="color: rgb(0, 168, 133)"><strong>10249+10102</strong></span> = 108931</p><p></p><p>Missed samples 2019</p><p>1. Norton..............(2_______2)</p><p>2. TrendMicro.....(7_______0)</p><p>3. Avira..................(15______9)</p><p>4. Microsoft........(12_____13)</p><p>5. F-Secure..........(12_____25)</p><p>6. Kaspersky.......(14_____24)</p><p>7. McAfee............(35_____30)</p><p>8. Avast................(26_____57)</p><p></p><p>r1=(2+7+15+12+12+14+35+26)/3782 = 0,033</p><p>R1=(2+0+9+13+25+24+30+57)/104076 = 0.0015</p><p></p><p>Missed samples 2020 (up to October)</p><p>1. F-Secure............(4_______1)</p><p>2. Norton...............(6_______2)</p><p>3. Kaspersky.........(4_______5)</p><p>4. Avast..................(11______2)</p><p>5. Microsoft..........(24_____12)</p><p>6. Avira...................(27_____17)</p><p>7. McAfee..............(41______7)</p><p>8. TrendMicro......(4_____257)</p><p></p><p>r2= (4+6+4+11+24+27+41+4)/3561 = 0.034</p><p>R2=(1+2+5+2+12+17+7+257)/108931= 0.0028</p><p></p><p>The results for Real-World infection rates (r1 and r2) are equal in the range of the expected error. If we would increase the total number of missed 0-day samples in the year 2019 by 5 then the infection rates for Real-World samples will be the same (0.34).</p><p></p><p>Because of the Trend Micro results, the infection rate R2 for Malware Protection tests in the year 2020 is greater as compared to the year 2019 (R2 ~2 * R1). Anyway, this infection rate is much smaller than for Real-World tests. Without Trend Micro, we could get the opposite result (R1 ~3.5 * R2). So, we cannot say for sure if the infection rate R is really growing with time.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Andy Ful, post: 917509, member: 32260"] Having the data from the OP (chances_to_be_infected.txt) we can compare the infection rates for the years 2019 and 2020 to see if they are changing. The number of Real-World samples tested in the year 2019 ([B][COLOR=rgb(41, 105, 176)]AV-Test[/COLOR] + [COLOR=rgb(0, 168, 133)]AV-Comparatives[/COLOR] + SE Labs[/B]): [COLOR=rgb(41, 105, 176)][B]309+277+307+368+335+331[/B][/COLOR]+ [B][COLOR=rgb(0, 168, 133)]752+703[/COLOR][/B]+ [B] 400[/B] = 3782 The number of Real-World samples tested in the year 2020 ([COLOR=rgb(41, 105, 176)][B]AV-Test[/B][/COLOR][B] + [COLOR=rgb(0, 168, 133)]AV-Comparatives[/COLOR] + SE Labs[/B]): [B][COLOR=rgb(41, 105, 176)]402+304+339+370+334[/COLOR][/B]+ [COLOR=rgb(0, 168, 133)] [B]754+758[/B][/COLOR]+ [B]300[/B] = 3561 The number of Malware-Protection samples in the year 2019 ([COLOR=rgb(41, 105, 176)][B]AV-Test[/B][/COLOR][B] + [/B][COLOR=rgb(0, 168, 133)][B]AV-Comparatives[/B][/COLOR]): [B][COLOR=rgb(41, 105, 176)]13668+6572+2428+13521+25933+20428[/COLOR][/B]+[COLOR=rgb(0, 168, 133)][B]10970+10556[/B][/COLOR] = 104076 The number of Malware-Protection samples in the year 2020 ([COLOR=rgb(41, 105, 176)][B]AV-Test[/B][/COLOR][B] + [/B][COLOR=rgb(0, 168, 133)][B]AV-Comparatives[/B][/COLOR]): [B][COLOR=rgb(41, 105, 176)]20606+20236+21851+13571+12316[/COLOR][/B]+[COLOR=rgb(0, 168, 133)][B]10249+10102[/B][/COLOR] = 108931 Missed samples 2019 1. Norton..............(2_______2) 2. TrendMicro.....(7_______0) 3. Avira..................(15______9) 4. Microsoft........(12_____13) 5. F-Secure..........(12_____25) 6. Kaspersky.......(14_____24) 7. McAfee............(35_____30) 8. Avast................(26_____57) r1=(2+7+15+12+12+14+35+26)/3782 = 0,033 R1=(2+0+9+13+25+24+30+57)/104076 = 0.0015 Missed samples 2020 (up to October) 1. F-Secure............(4_______1) 2. Norton...............(6_______2) 3. Kaspersky.........(4_______5) 4. Avast..................(11______2) 5. Microsoft..........(24_____12) 6. Avira...................(27_____17) 7. McAfee..............(41______7) 8. TrendMicro......(4_____257) r2= (4+6+4+11+24+27+41+4)/3561 = 0.034 R2=(1+2+5+2+12+17+7+257)/108931= 0.0028 The results for Real-World infection rates (r1 and r2) are equal in the range of the expected error. If we would increase the total number of missed 0-day samples in the year 2019 by 5 then the infection rates for Real-World samples will be the same (0.34). Because of the Trend Micro results, the infection rate R2 for Malware Protection tests in the year 2020 is greater as compared to the year 2019 (R2 ~2 * R1). Anyway, this infection rate is much smaller than for Real-World tests. Without Trend Micro, we could get the opposite result (R1 ~3.5 * R2). So, we cannot say for sure if the infection rate R is really growing with time. [/QUOTE]
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