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<blockquote data-quote="ForgottenSeer 97327" data-source="post: 1022656"><p>You claim that the changes in results are an indication of to small sample set. But this only applies for more or less stable populations. So taking two years of monthly results is arbitrary (since it is not applicable on changing populations).</p><p></p><p>When you are doing a poll on how many people have a valid driving license in Poland, the number of inhabitants only change marginally (people die and children are born). When you are testing 100 to 250 malware samples every month , the malware population of which this sample is taken changes every month (new malwares appear and malware prevelence change).</p><p></p><p>Some claim that half a million new malware appears every day. Researchers say that around half a million new malware binaries appear every day, of which only a fraction are unique (less than 0.5 percent) from even a lower number of families (less than 0,1 percent). This clearly shows that the 100 to 250 in the wild malware samples are probably taken from a heavily changed population, explaining the high difference in outcome.</p><p></p><p>This is different from the "do you have a driving license poll in Poland" where the number of people who could be potentially asked (the population) only marginally changes in a month. According to Goofle Poland jad 37.5 million inhabitants in 2021, with a total of 500.000 death and 300,000 born the total population in Poland only changes 2.1 percent per year of .2 per month.</p><p></p><p>So you are right that real world malware sample sets are small, but when there are 500.000 malware executables new per day of which only 0,35 % are unique, this would mean that around 1750 unique malware every day total up to around 60.000 every month. According to the sample test calculator a sample size of 382 would be sufficient.</p><p></p><p>When you take into account that unique malware can often be identified because they are part of a malware family (generic fingerprints), the sample set needed could further decrease. This would imply that the real world test samples (100 to 250 per month) used by the mainstream test labs could well be representative.</p><p>[SPOILER="Sample size calculator"]</p><p>[ATTACH=full]272584[/ATTACH]</p><p>[/SPOILER]</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="ForgottenSeer 97327, post: 1022656"] You claim that the changes in results are an indication of to small sample set. But this only applies for more or less stable populations. So taking two years of monthly results is arbitrary (since it is not applicable on changing populations). When you are doing a poll on how many people have a valid driving license in Poland, the number of inhabitants only change marginally (people die and children are born). When you are testing 100 to 250 malware samples every month , the malware population of which this sample is taken changes every month (new malwares appear and malware prevelence change). Some claim that half a million new malware appears every day. Researchers say that around half a million new malware binaries appear every day, of which only a fraction are unique (less than 0.5 percent) from even a lower number of families (less than 0,1 percent). This clearly shows that the 100 to 250 in the wild malware samples are probably taken from a heavily changed population, explaining the high difference in outcome. This is different from the "do you have a driving license poll in Poland" where the number of people who could be potentially asked (the population) only marginally changes in a month. According to Goofle Poland jad 37.5 million inhabitants in 2021, with a total of 500.000 death and 300,000 born the total population in Poland only changes 2.1 percent per year of .2 per month. So you are right that real world malware sample sets are small, but when there are 500.000 malware executables new per day of which only 0,35 % are unique, this would mean that around 1750 unique malware every day total up to around 60.000 every month. According to the sample test calculator a sample size of 382 would be sufficient. When you take into account that unique malware can often be identified because they are part of a malware family (generic fingerprints), the sample set needed could further decrease. This would imply that the real world test samples (100 to 250 per month) used by the mainstream test labs could well be representative. [SPOILER="Sample size calculator"] [ATTACH type="full" alt="1675203200625.png"]272584[/ATTACH] [/SPOILER] [/QUOTE]
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