Technology Google: The quantum apocalypse is coming sooner than we thought

Miravi

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Google isn’t just responsible for the encryption of a big chunk of the communications on the internet. It is also building its own quantum computers, so it’s well placed to evaluate how close the technology is to fruition.

Until now, the company has been aligned with the NIST timeline, which specifies 2030 for deprecating quantum-unsafe algorithms and their full disallowance by 2035.

But on Wednesday, Google said that 2029 is now the deadline for the migration to post-quantum cryptography (PQC). It also said that it has adjusted its threat model to prioritize PQC migration for authentication services, and urged other engineering teams to follow suit.

Quantum computers increasingly powerful​

Quantum computers are expected to break traditional asymmetric encryption, which is used to secure communications, financial transactions, and websites, once they get powerful enough.

That time is coming, says Jordan Kenyon, chief scientist in the quantum practice at Booz Allen Hamilton. “The first version of Shor’s [algorithm] was projected to require 20 million qubits [to break] and recent results have shrunk those requirements down to as a little as around 100,000 qubits.”

It’s not just that the hardware is getting better, she tells CSO. There have also been advances in error correction and algorithms.
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Google: The quantum apocalypse is coming sooner than we thought

The company has advanced its timeline for viable quantum computing, and thus the necessity of migrating to quantum-safe encryption, to 2029.
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Google is basically changing the locks before anyone can build the master key.

To put it simply:

  • The Problem: Current computers are great at standard math, but quantum computers are "monsters" at solving the specific puzzles that currently protect our passwords and banks (like RSA).
  • The Solution: Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) introduces new puzzles that even a quantum computer can't solve quickly.
  • What about AES? AES-256 remains solid. The real risk is at the "front door": the protocols we use to connect securely to websites and services.
  • What do we need to do? Nothing. The update happens "under the hood." Google, Apple, and banks will adapt their systems. By 2029, the goal is for our communications to travel through a tunnel shielded against future technology.
Ultimately, it’s all about prevention: it's better to reinforce the ship while the waters are calm than to wait for a leak to spring.🔐 ⚛️ 🛡️
 
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Parkinsond said:
Is it related to the current standard-of-industry AES encryption?
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The recent Google research describes the functional compromise of asymmetric encryption (like RSA and ECC).

According to articles like this, symmetric encryption such as AES is moderately vulnerable. The threat comes from Grover's Algorithm, which provides a way to accelerate the process of searching keys. it effectively halves the security of the key—under a quantum attack, the security of AES-128 drops to the equivalent of 64-bit encryption, which is considered dangerously weak.

AES won't be fully deprecated immediately, but it will be re-parameterized. It needs new math for the key exchange and digital signatures.

Post-quantum encryption algorithms have already been standardized in preparation.
 
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Miravi said:
The recent Google research describes the functional compromise of asymmetric encryption (like RSA and ECC).

According to articles like this, symmetric encryption such as AES is moderately vulnerable. The threat comes from Grover's Algorithm, which provides a way to accelerate the process of searching keys. it effectively halves the security of the key—under a quantum attack, the security of AES-128 drops to the equivalent of 64-bit encryption, which is considered dangerously weak.

AES won't be fully deprecated immediately, but it will be re-parameterized. It needs new math for the key exchange and digital signatures.

Post-quantum encryption algorithms have already been standardized in preparation.
Click to expand...
It's time for AES-512.
 
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Miravi said:
The recent Google research describes the functional compromise of asymmetric encryption (like RSA and ECC).

According to articles like this, symmetric encryption such as AES is moderately vulnerable. The threat comes from Grover's Algorithm, which provides a way to accelerate the process of searching keys. it effectively halves the security of the key—under a quantum attack, the security of AES-128 drops to the equivalent of 64-bit encryption, which is considered dangerously weak.

AES won't be fully deprecated immediately, but it will be re-parameterized. It needs new math for the key exchange and digital signatures.

Post-quantum encryption algorithms have already been standardized in preparation.
Click to expand...

The Hybrid PQ key exchange is enabled both in the browser and on the forum:

TLS Cipher Suite

TLS Client Test - TLS Fingerprinting

M.png

I notice that WildersSecurityForum has also enabled ECH:

W.png
 
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