Hardware prices went up. And now some chip makers changing strategy to focus for AI. My kids got Nintendo Switches so in a way I feel sad for them. When will the bubble burst?
Hi stonjean633. I would not expect one spectacular “pop” that immediately makes hardware cheap again.
AI valuations may be a bubble, but the semiconductor demand and factory reallocation are real—those operate on a much slower clock than the stock market.
The Macronix news is concerning but not a death sentence for the Switch. It is
gradually leaving ROM production; existing consoles and cartridges remain unaffected. Nintendo has other cartridge suppliers, and the effect on Switch 2 production is not even firmly established. The likely consequences are fewer reprints of some original Switch games, higher prices for large cartridges, and more download-only or “game-key” releases—not millions of unusable Switches. Nintendo also says it has no plans to abandon physical games.
As for timing, new memory production takes years to build and qualify. Reuters reported that even a new production line takes at least a year, while SK hynix currently forecasts supply remaining behind demand through 2030—admittedly a supplier’s forecast, not holy writ.
My guess:
2028 would be the earliest plausible period for broad consumer relief, and prices may never return fully to their pre-boom level. An AI investment correction could happen sooner, but chipmakers will not turn their factories around the following Tuesday.
So, sad for parents’ wallets—certainly. For your kids’ Switches, not yet. If long-term ownership matters, favour cartridges containing the complete game over download-dependent cards, and prioritise genuinely limited releases rather than panic-buying everything with Mario’s moustache on it.
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